Inside Williamsburg Real Estate

Williamsburg Va Home Sales Could Trend Up, Down, or Sideways..... 

As we enter the spring selling season, it’s only natural to look for clues about what to expect for Williamsburg VA area home sales. Normally, one of the principal barometers comes from the National Association of Realtors®. Their Pending Home Sales Index is a national compendium of hard data that can be useful for predicting home sales in Williamsburg. It is both “forward-looking” (an indicator of future activity) and part of a long-standing and continuous sample-gathering procedure.

When you take a wide sample of the same data for the better part of a decade (the PHSI has been recorded monthly for nine years now), you can chart the results, note when similar patterns repeat or diverge, and infer meaningful results. Further, when an acknowledged authority like NAR’s Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun provides commentary in plain English that any Williamsburg homeowner can easily understand, the monthly published reports comprise perhaps the best basis there is to project how our own local market is likely to fare.

Last week’s release of the Pending Home Sales Index and commentary was every bit as authoritative as we have come to expect—backed up by the same rigorously collected data from across the country. As a tool for projecting how upcoming Williamsburg Virginia home sales are likely to fare, however, it’s fair to say its usefulness is…uh…less than usual. 

It’s fair to say that because it is possible to read the entire 700-word document and emerge without a clue as to what you just read. It is, in a word, confusing. But in case it’s just me who is confused—and you are a typical Williamsburg homeowner who would appreciate information about how active our market is likely to be in the next few months—I think I should share a boiled-down version of the report’s key takeaways.

The Report’s headline is “Pending Home Sales Cool Down in January” (January’s data is the most recent). From this, we can gather that home sales activity is trending downward. Then, from the first paragraph: “…pending home sales…remained slightly higher than a year ago.” From this, we can gather that home sales activity is trending upward.

There follows an explanation about the first idea (home sales trending lower): it was partly to blame because of bad weather in January. A little later, there is a buoyant observation about the second idea (home sales trending higher): “Sales are now 11.0% higher than a year ago—the largest year-over-year gain since July 2013!” (exclamation point added by me, which seems appropriate, given that this is such good news). 

More good news for Williamsburg homeowners readying to sell their homes dealt with prices: “Last month’s price increase was the largest since April and marks the 47th consecutive month of year-over-year gains!!” (I added the two exclamation points). This, however, was also miserable news: “Home prices ascending…aren’t healthy” because household incomes didn’t rise as fast. But good news would make that much less of a factor, because fixed-rate mortgage rates were really wonderful: “declining to 3.87%, the lowest since October 2015!!!” (exclamation points—oh, you know).

Because sales cooled down in January for the highest year-over-year gain in years, I think the report tells Williamsburg homeowners that they might well expect a hot-cold/falling-rising market! Or perhaps prudent homeowners should just forget about this report, get their homes ready to list, and call (me)Marshall 757-328-0095…I promise not to share what’s in next month’s report!

 Williamsburg VA spring selling season is well underway!

Okay—it’s understandable if that seems like a somewhat premature announcement, but it is verifiable from any number of sources. Never mind that this year, spring doesn’t officially arrive in Williamsburg until March 20…but that’s only what astronomers say (and they can’t even decide whether Pluto is a planet). Meteorologists take issue with them, anyway. It’s always March 1 as far as meteorologists are concerned. But this year’s weather has made everything they say subject to revision. And anyway, we’re talking about real estate—and when it comes to real estate, spring is here already! 

Now, it may be true that if you look on one of those bank calendars you got in the mail last December, it’s likely to tell you that we’re weeks away from the change in seasons. And depending on what the latest weather seems to be doing, winter may seem to be hanging on for a while longer. 

But nimble Williamsburg VA real estate watchers know they can’t believe everything they read (or see happening outside in the garden).  Cherry blossoms can’t call the shots when it comes to announcing Williamsburg’s spring selling season, any more than tulips can. And that groundhog can stay in his den, for all the difference it makes to home sales.

This is fact: according to the real estate industry’s calendar, the spring selling season—in Williamsburg VA and everywhere else across the nation—has definitely sprung! 

Supporting evidence has flooded in from everywhere. For example:

Home Depot just announced it is hiring 80,000 workers for spring. These are the folks who work the cash registers [nowadays, shouldn’t they be called “plastic card registers?”] and help us wander up and down the aisles, looking for things we can’t describe exactly. Without them, spring wouldn’t be the same. With them, spring is clearly underway.

Internet real estate behemoth Zillow came out advising that everybody who is thinking about taking advantage of the spring selling season should start preparing their property “NOW”—and that was two weeks ago!  

CNBC put it in real time: “Spring housing season kicks off with record short supply” was their headline. If CNBC says so, who could argue?

Baseball teams have hightailed it into camp. That should end the discussion…

These harbingers of the spring selling season should certainly mean more than robins hopping across lawns or yellow and pink Peeps appearing on grocery store shelves. And even for any overly cautious souls who decide to wait for the bank calendars’ say-so, taking full advantage of the spring selling season in Williamsburg necessarily calls for advance preparation. A strong way to start is by giving me a call!       

In February especially when our Virginia weather turns grisly—common sense would seem to lead any homeowner planning to sell their Williamsburg  home this year to hold off for the moment…at least until Punxutawney Phil’s forecast starts to come true (the venerable groundhog said that winter 2016 will be a short one). A quick peek at Williamsburg listings in most Februarys usually confirms the notion that most people decide to wait. As a rule, the ranks of the real estate listings in February are a good deal thinner than will be the case a few months later.

Delaying isn’t necessarily the most convenient answer for every homeowner—which gives rise to questioning whether that particular piece of common sense is always as sensible as it seems. At least one writer thinks not.

Just over a year ago, Kenneth Harney authored an account describing some contrary evidence. Writing in The Washington Post, he reported on national sales results “that suggest it’s not necessarily the case” that spring or early summer are the most favorable times to launch listings. In fact, a winter launch (this year, from December 22 through March 20) can prove “surprisingly advantageous.”

The most compelling evidence for that claim comes from an online brokerage firm whose two-year study of asking and selling prices led it to conclude that listings launched in December through March actually yielded the best chance of resulting in above-asking price sales: 17%! The evidence was similar for those hoping to sell quickly. Listings debuting in February turned out to be champs: an average 66% of February listings sold within 90 days, making it “historically the best month to list.” 

We might be led to believe that these are reasons enough to hurry up and list your Williamsburg home immediately. Of course not all by itself—but for properties already in showable condition, it might be a reason to consider it. Logically, leaner Williamsburg listings mean less competition. Since it’s common for those whose homes did not move last summer to withdraw them until the spring, homeowners who list before then stand to get a jump on the market. And yes, since many corporations tend to transfer employees and hire new ones early in the year, some of those newcomers will have found their new Williamsburg VA homes before the spring real estate rush begins. 

Harney’s article does ultimately undermine the notion that correctly choosing a good listing month automatically guarantees a quick sale at a higher-than-asking price. The giveaway comes from one quoted source who mentions that owners of properties that hadn’t attracted serious offers during the warmer months “get more realistic at this time of year.” This therefore makes winter also a good time for “smart shoppers.” My experience with my own clients (all of whom are definitely smart shoppers) suggests they seldom are itching to make higher-than-asking offers—certainly not right off the bat. The inescapable truth is that, like most other factors, the results garnered by any Williamsburg listing depend on a whole galaxy of factors in addition to the season.

If your own plans include listing or house hunting any time this year, I hope you’ll give me a call 1-757-328-0095. I’ll be delighted to provide you with my totally confidential, no-obligation consultation, including an up-to-the-moment Williamsburg/James City County real estate market report.

    When an Williamsburg couple begins thinking over the pros and cons of downsizing their family’s home base, one increasingly attractive possibility is a move into a condominium or townhome (yes, they’re different—more on that later) within Williamsburg/James City County. Several factors combine to make that choice worth looking into. One is demographic: Williamsburg VA homeowners approaching retirement age typically discover that much of the effort and expense of operating a larger home plant is being wasted once children are no longer at home. Given the choice between mowing the lawn and golfing, or vacuuming a largely unused game room or visiting the mall, eventually the decision gets clearer. Because downsizing can mean significant savings in time and money, checking out the current Williamsburg/ James City County condo & townhome choices can make a lot more sense than it ever did before.

    The differences between condos and townhomes vary, although townhomes are usually considered to be the more similar to a single family home—with the notable exception that they are designed in a group, with walls shared. Most townhomes have two or more stories, but unlike condos, do not have units above or below.

     In most townhome situations, the owner owns the land the townhome is built upon, as well as the land in front and behind. Because most condominiums have neighboring units above and below—and sometimes on either side, like apartment complexes—land ownership is not part of the package.

     In both types of arrangements, maintenance obligations are shared, with monthly fees apportioned at set rates, and associations in charge of oversight. Fees usually include garbage pickup, lawn and garden upkeep, exterior insurance, roof and siding maintenance, etc. Owners are responsible for insuring the inside of their unit, including belongings. Because so many upkeep expenses are shared, the economies of scale tend to make condo and townhome maintenance expenditures less costly than single family homeowners experience—and being suddenly freed from the feeling of sole responsibility can come as a major relief! For the eco-conscious, a certain amount of self back-patting might be in order—even though some of today’s Williamsburg townhomes are actually as spacious as many single family dwellings.

    The move from single family home in Williamsburg to a townhome or condo can make for a truly dramatic adjustment in lifestyle—or simply be a reflection of a change already under way. If such a move could be in your future, this winter finds a number of possibilities for you to explore. Give me a phone call 757.328.0095 (Marshall) if you’d like to take a look!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         When you first go shopping for a Williamsburg VA home, loan budgeting—figuring out how much a comfortable monthly mortgage payment would be—pretty much dictates the price range you will be considering. Some listings do the lion’s share of the home loan budgeting work for you through a ‘payment options’ box that provides a thumbnail mortgage payment calculation. You enter a percentage for the down payment, amount, and the type of loan—and at the speed of light it calculates an estimate for the monthly payment. Those that also include the latest property tax bill and an insurance estimate come up with a pretty definite picture of how affordable a given property will be.

An associated cost that home loan budgeting alone doesn’t address is the additional operating cost every homeowner runs into—the maintenance figure. Since those costs are dependent on the type and condition of the property, most experts just advise future homeowners to anticipate 1% of the purchase price per year…a transparently made up number. There are a couple of approaches that can improve on it.

The first way is to invest in a home warranty, which has a set cost. Home warranties are the forms of insurance that cover the repair or replacement of covered items. This can be a relatively economical way new Williamsburg VA homeowners can buy some budgetary peace of mind while familiarizing themselves with the ins and outs of their new Williamsburg home. But it’s also an occasion where it’s particularly important to read the fine print—the only way to be clear on what is covered, what is not, and what the deductibles are. It’s also important to get an idea of who the subcontractors will be. 

The other way to get a bead on likely future maintenance outlays is to anticipate likely major replacement costs. Wood shake roofs, for instance, should last about 30 years, while fiber cement shingles last five years less (and rough weather conditions can lop years off those life expectancies). Wood floors last a century, as can marble and slate—while carpet usually needs to be replaced every eight to 10 years.

When it comes to included appliances, most Williamsburg VA homeowners will agree that today’s models just don’t seem to last as long as they used to. It may be because electronics have added improved functionality…or it may be a result of flimsier manufacturing. At any rate, the National Association of Homebuilders’ research tells us that dryers (both gas and electric) have average life expectancies of 13 years—as do cooktops, electric ranges, and fridges. Washing machines last an average of 10 years; while microwave ovens last 9 years—as do dishwashers and compact refrigerators. Freezers last 11 years, garbage disposals, 12…but (uh-oh!) trash compactors average only 6. If the previous owner can furnish original warranties or purchase slips, it should be able to come up with a ballpark idea of when to expect replacement outlays. 

Home loan budgeting will deliver the all-important mortgage payment amount, but it’s prudent to leave ample some budget for the other inevitable expenses. But first things first—and calling me is a good way to start. Finding a Williamsburg VA home to fit all your requirements (including the budgetary ones) is, after all, job One!  

It is entirely possible to think of a residence that’s been the subject of a Williamsburg home foreclosure as the real estate equivalent of a cute, cuddly orphaned kitten or puppy—one that deserves to be adopted by a loving family. You can think of the bank as the temporary animal shelter. With a little tender care, the adopted foreclosure can resume its place in the neighborhood, and all is well…

Or, a Williamsburg Va home foreclosure can be the real estate equivalent of a snarling mutt that turns out to be a menace to anyone who comes near it…with the possible exception of a wild animal trainer (the real estate equivalent would be a remodeling contractor—one with lots of time on his hands). 

For anyone who might consider checking out Williamsburg VA foreclosure listings in 2016, the paramount skill will be the ability to make sure any property they pursue is one of that first kind of ‘orphans.’ That’s because of the fact that the kind of quality protections that are taken for granted in a regular residential real estate transaction are not in force. 

Since banks are under no obligation to disclose information about the flaws of these Williamsburg foreclosure homes, it is always a true ‘buyer beware’ situation. No matter what the time pressure might be, it’s imperative to make a physical investigation of any foreclosure offering as early as possible. The more thorough the inspection, the more confidence you will have that any budget forecast accounts for all the expenditures you are likely to encounter in the course of turning a foreclosed property into a move-in ready residence. 

The good news is that despite the reality that the Williamsburg market has tightened up a good deal since the days of the real estate meltdown, foreclosure opportunities in Williamsburg VA are still coming onto the market. Since would-be bargain hunters are no longer intimidated by the fear of falling housing values, timing becomes important. With sharp-eyed competitors regularly on the lookout for promising foreclosure listings, it’s important to be alerted to new opportunities as soon as possible. In this regard, there is also another ‘buyer beware’ situation—this one having to do with some of the online dedicated “foreclosure” websites. Avoid any that wind up providing outdated and/or endlessly repeated ‘bargains’—for fees billed in advance. If you decide to try them out, see if they offer a free trial. You will quickly find out if you are being directed toward wild goose chases instead of what’s been advertised.

A better way to start is to give me a call Marshall Toney with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty Williamsburg @757-328-0095. If you wish, I will be happy to provide you with all current local foreclosure listings and any new entries as they come onto the market. I will offer prudent advice and guidance that helps turn ‘orphans’ into family-friendly residences. Area foreclosures may not be for everybody—but the rewards for those who are able to take advantage of them can be substantial! View the latest Williamsburg Va area foreclosure listings here...